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El Geish vs Masr Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 14:00

El Geish

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Masr

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-112.3%0-25.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.4%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.4%2-17.3%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 46.3% 2.16 -7.3%

Draw 30.6% 34.7% 2.88 -11.9%

Away win 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Over 2.5 38.8% 37.0% 2.70 +4.8%

Over 3.5 19.1% 19.0% 5.25 +0.2%

BTTS 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 37.0% 2.70 -16.8%

Away O1.5 25.0% 25.0% 4.00 0.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 0–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1✓ 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Geish1.1

Masr0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GEISH · PPG 1.75

MASR · PPG 1.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Geish (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -7.3%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.9%

Masr (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Geish face Masr in Egypt - Premier League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Geish a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Masr 26%, so El Geish are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for El Geish and 0.9 for Masr (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Geish are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.30 for Masr. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 0-1.

El Geish vs Masr Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions