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Abu Qair Semad vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 17:00

Abu Qair Semad

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Al Ittihad

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-112.0%0-25.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.7%2-17.3%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.7%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 33.3% 3.00 +23.9%

Draw 31.5% 36.4% 2.75 -13.4%

Away win 27.2% 39.4% 2.54 -18.6%

Over 2.5 38.8% 35.7% 2.80 +8.6%

Over 3.5 18.5% 17.4% 5.75 +3.8%

BTTS 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 27.4% 3.65 +12.8%

Away O1.5 24.0% 31.3% 3.20 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Abu Qair Semad1.1

Al Ittihad0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ABU QAIR SEMAD · PPG 1.75

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 0.99

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 1.95 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Abu Qair Semad (H) 41.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +23.9%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.4%

Al Ittihad (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Abu Qair Semad face Al Ittihad in Egypt - Premier League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Abu Qair Semad a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Al Ittihad 27%, so Abu Qair Semad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Abu Qair Semad and 0.8 for Al Ittihad (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Abu Qair Semad are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.99 for Al Ittihad. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +28.5%.

Abu Qair Semad vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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