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Al Ahly vs Smouha SC Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 17:00

Al Ahly

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Smouha SC

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-19.5%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.6%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 71.9% 1.39 -31.6%

Draw 28.0% 25.3% 3.95 +6.4%

Away win 22.8% 11.5% 8.70 +59.0%

Over 2.5 42.7% 48.8% 2.05 -12.5%

Over 3.5 20.9% 27.4% 3.65 -14.2%

BTTS 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%

Home O1.5 38.8% 60.6% 1.65 -36.0%

Away O1.5 23.5% 15.4% 6.50 +31.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahly1.3

Smouha SC0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLY · PPG 2.25

SMOUHA SC · PPG 1.02

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahly (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV -31.6%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +6.4%

Smouha SC (A) 22.8%

ODDS 8.70 · IMPLIED 11.5% EV +59.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahly face Smouha SC in Egypt - Premier League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahly a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Smouha SC 23%, so Al Ahly are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Ahly and 0.8 for Smouha SC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahly are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.02 for Smouha SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +66.9%.

Al Ahly vs Smouha SC Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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