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Zaqatala vs Sebail Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 25 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 12:00

Zaqatala

PPG 1.18 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Sebail

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-114.0%0-212.3%0-37.2%0-4+4.7%1 1-06.2%1-110.8%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.6%2 2-02.4%2-14.2%2-23.7%2-32.1%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.1%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.3% 19.6% 5.10 -13.2%

Draw 26.3% 27.4% 3.65 -2.4%

Away win 58.5% 65.4% 1.53 -10.5%

Over 2.5 46.5% 60.6% 1.65 -23.3%

Over 3.5 24.8% 37.0% 2.70 -19.8%

BTTS 51.1% 57.1% 1.75 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob51.1%

A 58% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 0–1 14.0%

#3 0–2 12.3%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zaqatala0.8

Sebail1.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAQATALA · PPG 1.18

SEBAIL · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.73) vs Home AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Zaqatala (H) 15.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -13.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.4%

Sebail (A) 58.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zaqatala face Sebail in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zaqatala a 15% chance, the draw 26% and Sebail 59%, so Sebail are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Zaqatala and 1.8 for Sebail (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zaqatala are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.73 for Sebail. This match finished 0-3.

Zaqatala vs Sebail Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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