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Mingachevir vs MOIK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 13:00

Mingachevir

PPG 1.92 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

MOIK

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.3%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-19.1%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-17.0%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.2%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 61.3% 1.63 -4.8%

Draw 22.7% 27.4% 3.65 -10.3%

Away win 18.9% 23.8% 4.20 -12.4%

Over 2.5 59.4% 61.7% 1.62 -3.8%

Over 3.5 34.9% 39.2% 2.55 -11.0%

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mingachevir2.1

MOIK0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MINGACHEVIR · PPG 1.92

MOIK · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.92) vs P(Home)=58.4%

Win probability 1X2

Mingachevir (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -4.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.3%

MOIK (A) 18.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mingachevir face MOIK in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mingachevir a 58% chance, the draw 23% and MOIK 19%, so Mingachevir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Mingachevir and 0.8 for MOIK (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mingachevir are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.85 for MOIK. This match finished 3-1.

Mingachevir vs MOIK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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