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Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Thursday, May 21, 2026 13:00 
Cebrayil PPG 1.58 
Simal PPG 0.58
Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Thursday, May 21, 2026 13:00 Cebrayil PPG 1.582-3 MISS
Simal PPG 0.58Home· +47.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 63.9% Odds: 1.70 +8.6%
Over 3.5 52.1% Odds: 2.75 +43.3%
BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.57 -6.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-1 ✘
2nd 1-1 ✘
3rd 3-1 ✘
4th 2-0 ✘
5th 3-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Cebrayil 2.62
Simal 1.15
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 +8.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Home(+47.5%)
Raw EV leader: Home(+47.5%)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 66%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.58) vs P(Home)=59.0%