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Cebrayil vs Simal Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 27 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 13:00

Cebrayil

PPG 1.58 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Simal

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.6%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.0%1-16.9%1-24.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-19.1%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-18.0%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-19.8%4+-25.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 40.0% 2.50 +47.5%

Draw 20.7% 27.0% 3.70 -14.1%

Away win 20.3% 44.4% 2.25 -32.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 58.8% 1.70 +8.6%

Over 3.5 52.1% 36.4% 2.75 +43.3%

BTTS 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 59% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cebrayil2.6

Simal1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CEBRAYIL · PPG 1.58

SIMAL · PPG 0.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.58) vs P(Home)=59.0%

Win probability 1X2

Cebrayil (H) 59.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +47.5%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.1%

Simal (A) 20.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cebrayil face Simal in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cebrayil a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Simal 20%, so Cebrayil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Cebrayil and 1.1 for Simal (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cebrayil are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.58 for Simal. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +47.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Cebrayil vs Simal Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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