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Baku Sportinq vs Karvan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Matchday 1 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 13:00

Baku Sportinq

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Karvan

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.3%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.5%1-111.6%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.9%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 34.5% 2.90 +34.8%

Draw 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Away win 29.3% 44.4% 2.25 -20.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 44.4% 2.25 +21.1%

Over 3.5 33.8% 27.4% 3.65 +23.4%

BTTS 56.0% 53.5% 1.87 +4.7%

Home O1.5 47.7% 34.7% 2.88 +37.4%

Away O1.5 36.8% 38.0% 2.63 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.0%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baku Sportinq1.6

Karvan1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAKU SPORTINQ · PPG 1.73

KARVAN · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Baku Sportinq (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +34.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

Karvan (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baku Sportinq face Karvan in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baku Sportinq a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Karvan 29%, so Baku Sportinq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Baku Sportinq and 1.2 for Karvan (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baku Sportinq are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.50 for Karvan. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +37.4%.

Baku Sportinq vs Karvan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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