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Simal vs Difai Agsu Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 26 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 13:00

Simal

PPG 0.77 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Difai Agsu

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.1%0-26.6%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.2%1-112.0%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-17.9%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 38.5% 2.60 -3.0%

Draw 26.3% 29.4% 3.40 -6.3%

Away win 36.4% 42.0% 2.38 -13.4%

Over 2.5 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Over 3.5 30.2% 34.7% 2.88 -13.0%

BTTS 54.6% 62.9% 1.59 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Simal1.3

Difai Agsu1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SIMAL · PPG 0.77

DIFAI AGSU · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.77), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Simal (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -3.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.3%

Difai Agsu (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Simal face Difai Agsu in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Simal a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Difai Agsu 36%, so Simal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Simal and 1.5 for Difai Agsu (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Simal are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 0.50 for Difai Agsu. This match finished 0-1.

Simal vs Difai Agsu Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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