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Mingachevir vs Sebail Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Matchday 27 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 13:00

Mingachevir

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sebail

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-111.1%0-26.4%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.4%1-113.2%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-17.8%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.7%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

Draw 28.0% 31.3% 3.20 -6.2%

Away win 35.2% 34.5% 2.90 +2.1%

Over 2.5 46.9% 46.5% 2.15 +0.8%

Over 3.5 20.8% 32.8% 3.05 -21.9%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -22.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mingachevir1.2

Sebail1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MINGACHEVIR · PPG 2.00

SEBAIL · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Mingachevir (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -19.0%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.2%

Sebail (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mingachevir face Sebail in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mingachevir a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Sebail 35%, so Mingachevir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mingachevir and 1.2 for Sebail (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mingachevir are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Sebail. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Mingachevir vs Sebail Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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