Simal vs MOIK Prediction & Tips

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Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Regular Season - 25 Wednesday, May 6, 2026 12:00

Simal PPG 0.75

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

MOIK PPG 0.83

Home· +0.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.6%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +0.4%

Draw 27.0%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -1.7%

Away 45.4%

Odds: 1.75 EV: -20.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.1% Odds: 1.55 -17.7%

Over 3.5 29.1% Odds: 2.55 -15.5%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.60 -12.6%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Simal

1.06

MOIK

1.66

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+0.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 63% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.83)