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Simal vs MOIK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 25 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 12:00

Simal

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

MOIK

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.9%0-29.1%0-35.0%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.7%2-16.1%2-25.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.3%3-12.2%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 27.4% 3.65 +0.4%

Draw 27.0% 27.8% 3.60 -1.7%

Away win 45.4% 57.1% 1.75 -20.5%

Over 2.5 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Over 3.5 29.1% 39.2% 2.55 -15.5%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–2 9.1%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Simal1.1

MOIK1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SIMAL · PPG 0.75

MOIK · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Simal (H) 27.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.7%

MOIK (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Simal face MOIK in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Simal a 28% chance, the draw 27% and MOIK 45%, so MOIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Simal and 1.7 for MOIK (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Simal are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.83 for MOIK. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Simal vs MOIK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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