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Sebail vs Sahdag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 13:00

Sebail

PPG 2.08 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sahdag

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-18.2%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.2%1-112.0%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.7%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.2%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 62.5% 1.60 -17.9%

Draw 27.2% 26.7% 3.75 +1.2%

Away win 21.5% 23.1% 4.33 -4.1%

Over 2.5 45.4% 60.6% 1.65 -25.1%

Over 3.5 17.9% 41.2% 2.43 -33.9%

BTTS 48.1% 60.6% 1.65 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 0–0✓ 11.2%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sebail1.5

Sahdag0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SEBAIL · PPG 2.08

SAHDAG · PPG 1.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.08) > Away AVERAGE (1.46)

Win probability 1X2

Sebail (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -17.9%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.2%

Sahdag (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sebail face Sahdag in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sebail a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Sahdag 22%, so Sebail are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sebail and 0.7 for Sahdag (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sebail are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.46 for Sahdag. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Sebail vs Sahdag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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