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Difai Agsu vs Safa Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 25 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 12:00

Difai Agsu

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Safa

PPG 2.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-15.8%0-29.1%0-39.4%0-4+15.8%1 1-01.6%1-15.1%1-27.9%1-38.2%1-4+13.7%2 2-00.7%2-12.2%2-23.4%2-33.5%2-4+6.0%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-21.0%3-31.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.4% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 66.4% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 56.2% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob54.6%

A 66% / xG 0.9-3.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.4%

#2 0–2 9.1%

#3 1–3 8.2%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 0–4 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Difai Agsu0.9

Safa3.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DIFAI AGSU · PPG 0.67

SAFA · PPG 2.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Difai Agsu (H) 12.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Safa (A) 66.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Difai Agsu face Safa in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Difai Agsu a 12% chance, the draw 21% and Safa 66%, so Safa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Difai Agsu and 3.1 for Safa (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Difai Agsu are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 2.36 for Safa. This match finished 0-0.

Difai Agsu vs Safa Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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