Today / Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta / MOIK vs Difai Agsu

MOIK vs Difai Agsu Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 27 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 13:00

MOIK

PPG 1.58 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Difai Agsu

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.8%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.5%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 52.4% 1.91 -2.8%

Draw 25.1% 29.4% 3.40 -8.8%

Away win 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Over 3.5 29.2% 44.4% 2.25 -20.6%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MOIK1.7

Difai Agsu1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MOIK · PPG 1.58

DIFAI AGSU · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.58) vs P(Home)=50.9%

Win probability 1X2

MOIK (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -2.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.8%

Difai Agsu (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

MOIK face Difai Agsu in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MOIK a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Difai Agsu 24%, so MOIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for MOIK and 1.0 for Difai Agsu (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MOIK are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.69 for Difai Agsu. This match finished 4-0.

MOIK vs Difai Agsu Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

More Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Predictions