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Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Thursday, May 21, 2026 13:00 
MOIK PPG 1.58 
Difai Agsu PPG 0.69
Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Thursday, May 21, 2026 13:00 MOIK PPG 1.584-0 MISS
Difai Agsu PPG 0.69Home· -2.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.75 -8.0%
Over 3.5 29.2% Odds: 2.25 -20.6%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.62 -14.8%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
MOIK 1.69
Difai Agsu 1.04
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -8.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -8.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 28 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 54%
O2.5/Under 57%
BTTS/No 50%
Score Hit 39%
ROI -5.3%
Bet Hit 63% (8 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.58) vs P(Home)=50.9%