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Cebrayil vs Baku Sporting Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 25 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 12:00

Cebrayil

PPG 1.73 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Baku Sporting

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.9%0-28.0%0-34.8%0-4+3.2%1 1-06.0%1-110.8%1-29.7%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.6%2-16.5%2-25.8%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.5%3-12.6%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 23.1% 4.33 +11.7%

Draw 27.0% 27.0% 3.70 -0.1%

Away win 45.4% 61.7% 1.62 -26.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Over 3.5 35.4% 37.0% 2.70 -4.4%

BTTS 58.8% 57.8% 1.73 +1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cebrayil1.2

Baku Sporting1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CEBRAYIL · PPG 1.73

BAKU SPORTING · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Cebrayil (H) 27.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +11.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.1%

Baku Sporting (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cebrayil face Baku Sporting in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cebrayil a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Baku Sporting 45%, so Baku Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cebrayil and 1.8 for Baku Sporting (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cebrayil are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.73 for Baku Sporting. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Cebrayil vs Baku Sporting Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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