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Zaqatala vs Safa Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 27 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 11:30

Zaqatala

PPG 1.08 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Safa

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-113.8%0-213.5%0-38.9%0-4+6.9%1 1-04.8%1-19.5%1-29.4%1-36.2%1-4+4.8%2 2-01.7%2-13.3%2-23.2%2-32.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% 14.8% 6.75 -2.9%

Draw 24.2% 25.0% 4.00 -1.9%

Away win 61.7% 71.4% 1.40 -13.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 34.7% 2.88 -12.1%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob49.2%

A 62% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.5%

#2 0–1 13.8%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–3 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zaqatala0.7

Safa2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAQATALA · PPG 1.08

SAFA · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Zaqatala (H) 14.1%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -2.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.9%

Safa (A) 61.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zaqatala face Safa in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zaqatala a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Safa 62%, so Safa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Zaqatala and 2.0 for Safa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zaqatala are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 2.25 for Safa. This match finished 2-1.

Zaqatala vs Safa Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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