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Baku Sporting vs Zaqatala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 13:00

Baku Sporting

PPG 1.77 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Zaqatala

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.77) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-16.7%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-111.1%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.0%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% — — —

Draw 25.5% — — —

Away win 22.0% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 21.4% — — —

BTTS 48.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baku Sporting1.6

Zaqatala0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BAKU SPORTING · PPG 1.77

ZAQATALA · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.77) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Baku Sporting (H) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Zaqatala (A) 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Baku Sporting face Zaqatala in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baku Sporting a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Zaqatala 22%, so Baku Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Baku Sporting and 0.7 for Zaqatala (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baku Sporting are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.92 for Zaqatala. This match finished 3-0.

Baku Sporting vs Zaqatala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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