Today / Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta / Sahdag vs Baku Sporting

Sahdag vs Baku Sporting Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 27 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 13:00

Sahdag

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Baku Sporting

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-112.8%0-26.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.0%2-17.1%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 36.4% 2.75 -0.7%

Draw 30.4% 31.3% 3.20 -2.7%

Away win 33.5% 43.5% 2.30 -22.9%

Over 2.5 46.2% 46.5% 2.15 -0.7%

Over 3.5 15.6% 29.4% 3.40 -28.2%

BTTS 49.0% 53.5% 1.87 -8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.0%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sahdag1.1

Baku Sporting1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAHDAG · PPG 1.83

BAKU SPORTING · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Sahdag (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -0.7%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.7%

Baku Sporting (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sahdag face Baku Sporting in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sahdag a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Baku Sporting 34%, so Sahdag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sahdag and 1.0 for Baku Sporting (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sahdag are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.83 for Baku Sporting. This match finished 1-1.

Sahdag vs Baku Sporting Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

More Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Predictions