Leagues / AUSTRALIA / Victoria NPL
Victoria NPL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 79 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
57.0%
1X2
45/79
53.2%
O/U 2.5
42/79
46.8%
BTTS
37/79
39.2%
Exact score
31/79
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
72
Settled
56.9%
Hit rate
41/72
1.58
Avg odds
-12.0%
ROI
-8.7u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=28 57.1% HIT · AVG 1.56 · -10.9% ROI
BTTS · N=25 48.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · -24.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.53 · +9.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.40 · -7.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.66 · +16.3% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.45 · -9.7% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
9
Bets
67%
Hit
+12.7%
ROI
✓ Solid
6
Bets
67%
Hit
+0.2%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
18
Bets
50%
Hit
-23.2%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
39
Bets
56%
Hit
-14.4%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 15 PICKS · 7 HIT · 8 MISS
18 JUL Hume City vs Oakleigh C. BTTS -17% 0–1 MISS18 JUL Avondale vs St. Albans HO1.5 1–1 MISS18 JUL Altona Magic vs Heidelberg Utd BTTS -13% 0–0 MISS18 JUL South Melbourne vs Preston Lions BTTS -17% 0–0 MISS17 JUL Green Gully vs Dandenong T. BTTS -9% 3–1 HIT17 JUL Bentleigh G. vs Dandenong City BTTS -7% 2–1 HIT12 JUL St. Albans vs George Cross BTTS -15% 2–2 HIT11 JUL Melbourne C. B vs Heidelberg Utd BTTS -18% 2–2 HIT11 JUL Dandenong T. vs Bentleigh G. Over 2.5 -1% 2–1 HIT10 JUL Green Gully vs Altona Magic BTTS -14% 1–3 HIT10 JUL Dandenong City vs South Melbourne Over 2.5 -1% 0–2 MISS10 JUL Oakleigh C. vs Avondale Over 2.5 -3% 2–0 MISS10 JUL Preston Lions vs Hume City BTTS -10% 2–1 HIT5 JUL South Melbourne vs Dandenong T. Over 2.5 -15% 1–0 MISS4 JUL Hume City vs Dandenong City Over 2.5 -5% 0–0 MISS