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Dandenong City vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Dandenong City

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Preston Lions

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-114.2%0-29.7%0-34.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.2%2-15.7%2-23.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.3%3-11.7%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -7.2%

Draw 27.1% 27.8% 3.60 -1.5%

Away win 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

Over 2.5 50.1% 58.8% 1.70 -14.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 36.4% 2.75 -13.6%

BTTS 51.9% 63.7% 1.57 -18.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.8% 2.45 -25.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 54.1% 1.85 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob51.9%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 14.2%

#3 0–0✓ 10.5%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong City0.9

Preston Lions1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.75

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.46, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong City (H) 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.2%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.5%

Preston Lions (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face Preston Lions in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Preston Lions 45%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Dandenong City and 1.4 for Preston Lions (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.17 for Preston Lions. This match finished 0-0.

Dandenong City vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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