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Oakleigh Cannons vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:00

Oakleigh Cannons

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dandenong City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.2%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.4%1-111.0%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-15.8%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 66.7% 1.50 -20.1%

Draw 24.4% 24.4% 4.10 +0.0%

Away win 22.4% 18.5% 5.40 +12.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 40.0% 2.50 -21.3%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 66.7% 1.50 -26.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 29.9% 3.35 -8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakleigh Cannons1.8

Dandenong City0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLEIGH CANNONS · PPG 2.08

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Oakleigh Cannons (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.0%

Dandenong City (A) 22.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakleigh Cannons face Dandenong City in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakleigh Cannons a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Dandenong City 22%, so Oakleigh Cannons are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Oakleigh Cannons and 0.9 for Dandenong City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakleigh Cannons are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.00 for Dandenong City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Oakleigh Cannons vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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