Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Green Gully vs St. Albans Saints

Green Gully vs St. Albans Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

St. Albans Saints

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.2%0-28.1%0-34.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.3%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.4%2-16.9%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 38.5% 2.60 -18.6%

Draw 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Away win 44.1% 42.9% 2.33 +2.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 64.5% 1.55 -16.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 42.0% 2.38 -24.8%

BTTS 54.7% 69.4% 1.44 -21.2%

Home O1.5 31.0% 50.0% 2.00 -38.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2✓ 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully1.2

St. Albans Saints1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.67

ST. ALBANS SAINTS · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 31.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -18.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

St. Albans Saints (A) 44.1%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face St. Albans Saints in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 31% chance, the draw 25% and St. Albans Saints 44%, so St. Albans Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Green Gully and 1.6 for St. Albans Saints (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.08 for St. Albans Saints. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Green Gully vs St. Albans Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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