Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United

South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 05:30

South Melbourne

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Heidelberg United

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.0%0-26.2%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.2%1-111.3%1-28.8%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.0%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.4%3-13.7%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 40.0% 2.50 +2.8%

Draw 23.8% 29.4% 3.40 -11.5%

Away win 35.1% 43.5% 2.30 -19.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

BTTS 61.2% 62.5% 1.60 -2.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 44.4% 2.25 -10.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.2%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2✓ 8.8%

#4 1–0 7.2%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne1.4

Heidelberg United1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 1.08

HEIDELBERG UNITED · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +2.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.5%

Heidelberg United (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face Heidelberg United in Australia - NPL Victoria on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Heidelberg United 35%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for South Melbourne and 1.6 for Heidelberg United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.50 for Heidelberg United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 1-2.

South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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