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Melbourne City II vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne City II

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

2 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Bentleigh Greens

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.1%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.6%1-110.0%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.5%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 44.4% 2.25 +19.5%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 24.4% 37.0% 2.70 -20.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 65.4% 1.53 -17.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 42.6% 2.35 -25.7%

BTTS 51.5% 69.4% 1.44 -25.8%

Home O1.5 54.9% 54.6% 1.83 +0.5%

Away O1.5 22.8% 48.8% 2.05 -32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-6

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.5%

H 53% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 1–2 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne City II2.0

Bentleigh Greens0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE CITY II · PPG 0.91

BENTLEIGH GREENS · PPG 0.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne City II (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +19.5%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Bentleigh Greens (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne City II face Bentleigh Greens in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne City II a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Bentleigh Greens 24%, so Melbourne City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Melbourne City II and 0.9 for Bentleigh Greens (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne City II are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 0.45 for Bentleigh Greens. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 2-6.

Melbourne City II vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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