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Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:15

Dandenong Thunder

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Oakleigh Cannons

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-110.7%0-213.0%0-310.6%0-4+11.5%1 1-03.0%1-17.4%1-29.0%1-37.3%1-4+8.0%2 2-01.0%2-12.5%2-23.1%2-32.5%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 6.3% 16.00 +72.5%

Draw 16.4% 14.8% 6.75 +6.4%

Away win 69.8% 89.3% 1.12 -21.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% 51.3% 1.95 -28.6%

BTTS 49.1% 48.8% 2.05 +0.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 17.4% 5.75 +75.9%

Away O1.5 65.4% 84.7% 1.18 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob49.1%

A 70% / xG 0.7-2.4 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.0%

#2 0–3 10.6%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong Thunder0.7

Oakleigh Cannons2.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG THUNDER · PPG 0.75

OAKLEIGH CANNONS · PPG 2.17

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.75 for Away, form 0.75 vs 2.17

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong Thunder (H) 13.8%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +72.5%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +6.4%

Oakleigh Cannons (A) 69.8%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong Thunder face Oakleigh Cannons in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong Thunder a 14% chance, the draw 16% and Oakleigh Cannons 70%, so Oakleigh Cannons are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Dandenong Thunder and 2.4 for Oakleigh Cannons (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong Thunder are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.17 for Oakleigh Cannons. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +113.2%. This match finished 0-5.

Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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