Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Preston Lions vs Altona Magic

Preston Lions vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:00

Preston Lions

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Altona Magic

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-16.5%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.6%1-111.1%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.3%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 67.6% 1.48 -16.5%

Draw 22.8% 24.4% 4.10 -3.9%

Away win 20.8% 17.4% 5.75 +11.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 60.6% 1.65 -16.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

BTTS 47.2% 58.8% 1.70 -19.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 66.7% 1.50 -26.7%

Away O1.5 21.1% 27.8% 3.60 -14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–1✓ 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston Lions1.7

Altona Magic0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.92

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Preston Lions (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -16.5%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.9%

Altona Magic (A) 20.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston Lions face Altona Magic in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston Lions a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Altona Magic 21%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Preston Lions and 0.8 for Altona Magic (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston Lions are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.50 for Altona Magic. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Preston Lions vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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