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Hume City vs Sunshine Georgies Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 06:00

Hume City

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sunshine Georgies

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.8%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.6%1-111.4%1-26.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.3%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 65.4% 1.53 -28.2%

Draw 24.3% 24.4% 4.10 -0.2%

Away win 28.8% 19.6% 5.10 +28.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

BTTS 60.4% 60.6% 1.65 -0.3%

Home O1.5 48.4% 66.7% 1.50 -27.4%

Away O1.5 35.8% 30.8% 3.25 +16.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.4%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hume City1.7

Sunshine Georgies1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HUME CITY · PPG 1.92

SUNSHINE GEORGIES · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hume City (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -28.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.2%

Sunshine Georgies (A) 28.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hume City face Sunshine Georgies in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hume City a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Sunshine Georgies 29%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hume City and 1.2 for Sunshine Georgies (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hume City are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.33 for Sunshine Georgies. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Hume City vs Sunshine Georgies Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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