Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Preston Lions vs Melbourne City II

Preston Lions vs Melbourne City II Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 16 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 10:30

Preston Lions

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Melbourne City II

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.3%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.8%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.7%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 83.3% 1.20 -43.0%

Draw 25.1% 17.2% 5.80 +27.4%

Away win 27.4% 10.0% 10.00 +104.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 70.4% 1.42 -28.7%

Over 3.5 30.0% 48.8% 2.05 -38.5%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 80.0% 1.25 -52.8%

Away O1.5 35.3% 22.2% 4.50 +58.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston Lions1.4

Melbourne City II1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.82

MELBOURNE CITY II · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Preston Lions (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -43.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +27.4%

Melbourne City II (A) 27.4%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +104.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston Lions face Melbourne City II in Australia - NPL Victoria on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston Lions a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Melbourne City II 27%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Preston Lions and 1.1 for Melbourne City II (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston Lions are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.67 for Melbourne City II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +102.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Preston Lions vs Melbourne City II Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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