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Melbourne City II vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne City II

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Green Gully

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.9%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.2%1-19.8%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.7%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 40.0% 2.50 +29.8%

Draw 21.8% 26.7% 3.75 -10.9%

Away win 26.4% 42.9% 2.33 -23.1%

Over 2.5 62.3% 69.0% 1.45 -9.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 46.5% 2.15 -15.5%

BTTS 60.3% 71.4% 1.40 -15.6%

Home O1.5 56.3% 54.1% 1.85 +4.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 55.6% 1.80 -41.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–2✓ 5.2%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne City II2.0

Green Gully1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE CITY II · PPG 0.83

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne City II (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +29.8%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.9%

Green Gully (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne City II face Green Gully in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne City II a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Green Gully 26%, so Melbourne City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Melbourne City II and 1.1 for Green Gully (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne City II are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.58 for Green Gully. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Melbourne City II vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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