Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne

Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:00

Sunshine Georgies

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

South Melbourne

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.0%0-27.6%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.9%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.2%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 29.4% 3.40 +5.1%

Draw 24.4% 27.0% 3.70 -5.8%

Away win 44.6% 54.1% 1.85 -17.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 32.4% 40.0% 2.50 -19.0%

BTTS 55.0% 65.4% 1.53 -15.8%

Home O1.5 32.2% 40.8% 2.45 -21.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 58.8% 1.70 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.0%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunshine Georgies1.2

South Melbourne1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNSHINE GEORGIES · PPG 1.58

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 2.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sunshine Georgies (H) 30.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +5.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.8%

South Melbourne (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunshine Georgies face South Melbourne in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunshine Georgies a 31% chance, the draw 24% and South Melbourne 45%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sunshine Georgies and 1.5 for South Melbourne (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunshine Georgies are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 2.33 for South Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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