Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens

Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:00

Heidelberg United

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bentleigh Greens

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.0%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.8%1-110.0%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.2%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 74.1% 1.35 -28.6%

Draw 22.2% 21.7% 4.60 +1.3%

Away win 24.9% 14.3% 7.00 +44.6%

Over 2.5 61.9% 64.5% 1.55 -4.0%

Over 3.5 39.3% 42.0% 2.38 -6.5%

BTTS 59.9% 57.1% 1.75 +4.8%

Home O1.5 56.3% 72.5% 1.38 -22.3%

Away O1.5 32.6% 25.3% 3.95 +28.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.9%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0✓ 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg United2.0

Bentleigh Greens1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UNITED · PPG 1.33

BENTLEIGH GREENS · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg United (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -28.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.3%

Bentleigh Greens (A) 24.9%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +44.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg United face Bentleigh Greens in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg United a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Bentleigh Greens 25%, so Heidelberg United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Heidelberg United and 1.0 for Bentleigh Greens (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg United are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Bentleigh Greens. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Victoria Predictions