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Altona Magic vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 05:15

Altona Magic

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Avondale

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-17.2%0-28.2%0-36.1%0-4+5.9%1 1-03.8%1-18.6%1-29.7%1-37.3%1-4+7.0%2 2-02.2%2-15.1%2-25.7%2-34.3%2-4+4.1%3 3-00.9%3-12.0%3-22.3%3-31.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 21.1% 4.75 +7.3%

Draw 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Away win 54.9% 64.5% 1.55 -14.9%

Over 2.5 64.6% 66.7% 1.50 -3.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 45.5% 2.20 -4.3%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 32.4% 35.7% 2.80 -9.3%

Away O1.5 65.4% 69.0% 1.45 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.3%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2✓ 8.2%

#4 2–1 5.1%

#5 1–3 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona Magic1.2

Avondale2.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 0.75

AVONDALE · PPG 1.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.07 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Altona Magic (H) 23.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

Avondale (A) 54.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona Magic face Avondale in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona Magic a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Avondale 55%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Altona Magic and 2.3 for Avondale (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona Magic are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Avondale. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Altona Magic vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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