Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder

St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:00

St. Albans Saints

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dandenong Thunder

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.1%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.9%1-110.1%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.5%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.0%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 76.9% 1.30 -28.0%

Draw 22.1% 19.0% 5.25 +9.6%

Away win 22.5% 14.3% 7.00 +34.5%

Over 2.5 59.8% 74.1% 1.35 -19.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 51.8% 1.93 -29.2%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 80.0% 1.25 -29.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 29.9% 3.35 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans Saints2.0

Dandenong Thunder1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS SAINTS · PPG 1.25

DANDENONG THUNDER · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans Saints (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -28.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +9.6%

Dandenong Thunder (A) 22.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans Saints face Dandenong Thunder in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans Saints a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Dandenong Thunder 23%, so St. Albans Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for St. Albans Saints and 1.1 for Dandenong Thunder (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans Saints are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Dandenong Thunder. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.9%. This match finished 6-0.

St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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