Leagues / AUSTRALIA / Queensland Premier League
Queensland Premier League
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 33 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
66.7%
1X2
22/33
69.7%
O/U 2.5
23/33
54.5%
BTTS
18/33
36.4%
Exact score
12/33
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
20
Settled
70.0%
Hit rate
14/20
1.39
Avg odds
-0.9%
ROI
-0.2u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.35 · -2.3% ROI
HOME WIN · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.47 · +17.0% ROI
BTTS · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.36 · +1.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.23 · -61.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.91 · +91.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+41.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
5
Bets
60%
Hit
-8.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
13
Bets
69%
Hit
-4.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
June 2026 // 8 PICKS · 4 HIT · 4 MISS
9 JUN Ipswich vs Robina City Over 2.5 0–1 MISS7 JUN St George W. vs Redlands Away +19% 0–3 HIT6 JUN B. Strikers vs Robina City HO1.5 3–0 HIT6 JUN Broadbeach Utd vs Holland Park H. HO1.5 1–0 MISS6 JUN Caboolture vs Ipswich Over 2.5 1–2 HIT6 JUN SC Wanderers vs North Star HO1.5 1–0 MISS5 JUN Logan Lightning vs Capalaba HO1.5 1–0 MISS3 JUN SC Wanderers vs St George W. Home -13% 8–0 HITMay 2026 // 7 PICKS · 5 HIT · 2 MISS
30 MAY Caboolture vs Capalaba HO1.5 2–1 HIT24 MAY Robina City vs Caboolture Over 2.5 0–1 MISS24 MAY St George W. vs Ipswich Away 0–4 HIT23 MAY North Star vs Logan Lightning Over 2.5 1–3 HIT23 MAY Holland Park H. vs SC Wanderers Over 2.5 -7% 3–2 HIT23 MAY B. Strikers vs Capalaba Home -13% 8–0 HIT23 MAY Broadbeach Utd vs Redlands Over 2.5 -20% 2–0 MISS