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Brisbane Strikers vs Broadbeach United Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 08:00

Brisbane Strikers

PPG 2.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Broadbeach United

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.7%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.9%1-110.6%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.1%3-16.0%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.2%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 48.8% 2.05 +4.3%

Draw 23.9% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Away win 25.2% 33.9% 2.95 -15.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 42.0% 2.38 -12.7%

BTTS 56.2% 69.0% 1.45 -18.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 57.1% 1.75 -1.5%

Away O1.5 33.3% 45.5% 2.20 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.2%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0✓ 8.9%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brisbane Strikers1.8

Broadbeach United1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISBANE STRIKERS · PPG 2.82

BROADBEACH UNITED · PPG 2.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brisbane Strikers (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +4.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

Broadbeach United (A) 25.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brisbane Strikers face Broadbeach United in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brisbane Strikers a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Broadbeach United 25%, so Brisbane Strikers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Brisbane Strikers and 1.2 for Broadbeach United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brisbane Strikers are averaging 2.82 points per game versus 2.09 for Broadbeach United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Brisbane Strikers vs Broadbeach United Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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