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North Star vs Robina City Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 06:00

North Star

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Robina City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-110.1%0-28.6%0-34.9%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.6%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.7%2-16.3%2-25.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.4%3-12.4%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 44.8% — — —

Over 2.5 60.0% — — —

Over 3.5 35.8% — — —

BTTS 55.1% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.1%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Star1.1

Robina City1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH STAR · PPG 0.67

ROBINA CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.59 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

North Star (H) 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Robina City (A) 44.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

North Star face Robina City in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Star a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Robina City 45%, so Robina City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for North Star and 1.7 for Robina City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Star are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Robina City. This match finished 1-0.

North Star vs Robina City Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions