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Redlands United vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 06:15

Redlands United

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Logan Lightning

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.3%0-22.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.5%1-17.4%1-26.1%1-33.4%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.8%3-16.4%3-25.3%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-16.1%4+-25.1%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 40.0% 2.50 +30.5%

Draw 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

Away win 25.9% 44.4% 2.25 -25.0%

Over 2.5 67.3% 76.9% 1.30 -12.5%

Over 3.5 43.3% 55.6% 1.80 -22.1%

BTTS 63.3% 78.1% 1.28 -19.0%

Home O1.5 63.0% 59.9% 1.67 +5.2%

Away O1.5 47.7% 62.5% 1.60 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Redlands United2.3

Logan Lightning1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REDLANDS UNITED · PPG 1.30

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Redlands United (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +30.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.4%

Logan Lightning (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Redlands United face Logan Lightning in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Redlands United a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Logan Lightning 26%, so Redlands United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Redlands United and 1.7 for Logan Lightning (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Redlands United are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.00 for Logan Lightning. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.4%.

Redlands United vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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