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Caboolture vs Holland Park Hawks Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 06:00

Caboolture

PPG 1.10 · HOME

7 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Holland Park Hawks

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.5%0-22.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.8%1-17.7%1-26.3%1-33.4%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.9%3-16.3%3-25.1%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.9%4+-24.8%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 57.1% 1.75 -13.6%

Draw 22.1% 23.8% 4.20 -4.3%

Away win 28.6% 28.6% 3.50 +0.1%

Over 2.5 67.2% 80.0% 1.25 -16.0%

Over 3.5 45.5% 58.8% 1.70 -22.7%

BTTS 64.3% 78.1% 1.28 -17.7%

Home O1.5 62.4% 72.5% 1.38 -13.9%

Away O1.5 48.2% 52.6% 1.90 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.3%

H 49% / xG 2.2-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caboolture2.2

Holland Park Hawks1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CABOOLTURE · PPG 1.10

HOLLAND PARK HAWKS · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Caboolture (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -13.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.3%

Holland Park Hawks (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caboolture face Holland Park Hawks in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caboolture a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Holland Park Hawks 29%, so Caboolture are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Caboolture and 1.6 for Holland Park Hawks (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caboolture are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.10 for Holland Park Hawks. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 7-2.

Caboolture vs Holland Park Hawks Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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