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St George Willawong vs Brisbane Strikers Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 06:30

St George Willawong

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brisbane Strikers

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-112.3%0-215.3%0-312.7%0-4+14.2%1 1-02.6%1-16.4%1-28.0%1-36.6%1-4+7.4%2 2-00.7%2-11.7%2-22.1%2-31.7%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 18.2% 5.50 -16.4%

Draw 17.1% 22.2% 4.50 -13.8%

Away win 69.7% 69.4% 1.44 +0.4%

Over 2.5 61.2% 69.0% 1.45 -11.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 46.5% 2.15 -19.8%

BTTS 48.7% 63.7% 1.57 -23.5%

Home O1.5 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 67.8% 72.5% 1.38 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 18.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob48.7%

A 70% / xG 0.5-2.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.3%

#2 0–3 12.7%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 0–4 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George Willawong0.5

Brisbane Strikers2.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE WILLAWONG · PPG 0.67

BRISBANE STRIKERS · PPG 2.22

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.96 for Away, form 0.67 vs 2.22

Win probability 1X2

St George Willawong (H) 13.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -16.4%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -13.8%

Brisbane Strikers (A) 69.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George Willawong face Brisbane Strikers in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George Willawong a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Brisbane Strikers 70%, so Brisbane Strikers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for St George Willawong and 2.5 for Brisbane Strikers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George Willawong are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 2.22 for Brisbane Strikers.

St George Willawong vs Brisbane Strikers Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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