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Capalaba vs Robina City Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 06:15

Capalaba

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Robina City

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-18.0%0-28.2%0-35.6%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.7%1-19.6%1-29.8%1-36.7%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.8%2-15.7%2-25.9%2-34.0%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.1%3-12.3%3-22.3%3-31.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.7% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 52.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 31.7% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.6%

A 52% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Capalaba1.2

Robina City2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CAPALABA · PPG 0.60

ROBINA CITY · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.84 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Capalaba (H) 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Robina City (A) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Capalaba face Robina City in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Capalaba a 26% chance, the draw 22% and Robina City 52%, so Robina City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Capalaba and 2.0 for Robina City (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Capalaba are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.90 for Robina City.

Capalaba vs Robina City Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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