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Ipswich vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 06:00

Ipswich

PPG 1.60 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Capalaba

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.1%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.9%1-17.6%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.7%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-18.6%4+-23.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% — — —

Draw 20.2% — — —

Away win 16.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.9% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 62.8% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 63% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0✓ 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ipswich2.5

Capalaba0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

IPSWICH · PPG 1.60

CAPALABA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 1.60 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ipswich (H) 62.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Capalaba (A) 16.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ipswich face Capalaba in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ipswich a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Capalaba 17%, so Ipswich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Ipswich and 0.8 for Capalaba (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ipswich are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Capalaba. This match finished 3-0.

Ipswich vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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