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SC Wanderers vs Broadbeach United Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 06:00

SC Wanderers

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Broadbeach United

PPG 2.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.1%0-27.0%0-34.1%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.1%1-110.7%1-29.4%1-35.4%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.1%2-17.1%2-26.2%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.8%3-13.2%3-22.8%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 35.7% 2.80 -11.8%

Draw 25.1% 27.0% 3.70 -4.3%

Away win 43.5% 47.6% 2.10 -8.6%

Over 2.5 60.4% 67.6% 1.48 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

BTTS 59.9% 70.4% 1.42 -14.9%

Home O1.5 37.4% 48.8% 2.05 -23.3%

Away O1.5 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.9%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1✓ 7.1%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Wanderers1.3

Broadbeach United1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SC WANDERERS · PPG 1.40

BROADBEACH UNITED · PPG 2.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SC Wanderers (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.3%

Broadbeach United (A) 43.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Wanderers face Broadbeach United in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Wanderers a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Broadbeach United 44%, so Broadbeach United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for SC Wanderers and 1.7 for Broadbeach United (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Wanderers are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.30 for Broadbeach United. This match finished 2-1.

SC Wanderers vs Broadbeach United Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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