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North Star vs Caboolture Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 06:15

North Star

PPG 0.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Caboolture

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.4%0-28.0%0-35.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.4%1-110.2%1-29.7%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.3%2-16.2%2-25.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 42.6% 2.35 -27.4%

Draw 24.1% 25.3% 3.95 -2.9%

Away win 45.0% 42.6% 2.35 +5.8%

Over 2.5 59.5% 76.9% 1.30 -22.7%

Over 3.5 36.5% 56.5% 1.77 -35.4%

BTTS 57.1% 78.1% 1.28 -26.9%

Home O1.5 32.4% 61.7% 1.62 -47.5%

Away O1.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob57.1%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Star1.2

Caboolture1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH STAR · PPG 0.90

CABOOLTURE · PPG 1.70

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.69 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

North Star (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -27.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.9%

Caboolture (A) 45.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Star face Caboolture in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Star a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Caboolture 45%, so Caboolture are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for North Star and 1.9 for Caboolture (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Star are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.70 for Caboolture.

North Star vs Caboolture Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions