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Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 06:00

Logan Lightning

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

St George Willawong

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.2%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-17.8%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.9%3-17.6%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-18.2%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 62.5% 1.60 +1.6%

Draw 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -8.6%

Away win 16.1% 23.1% 4.33 -18.2%

Over 2.5 63.8% 69.0% 1.45 -7.5%

Over 3.5 42.6% 46.5% 2.15 -8.4%

BTTS 54.6% 67.6% 1.48 -19.2%

Home O1.5 62.4% 69.0% 1.45 -9.5%

Away O1.5 21.4% 38.2% 2.62 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 8.9%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Logan Lightning2.4

St George Willawong0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 1.40

ST GEORGE WILLAWONG · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 1.40 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Logan Lightning (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +1.6%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.6%

St George Willawong (A) 16.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Logan Lightning face St George Willawong in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Logan Lightning a 64% chance, the draw 20% and St George Willawong 16%, so Logan Lightning are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Logan Lightning and 0.9 for St George Willawong (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Logan Lightning are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.70 for St George Willawong. This match finished 4-1.

Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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