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St George Willawong vs SC Wanderers Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 06:15

St George Willawong

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

SC Wanderers

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-112.6%0-212.8%0-38.7%0-4+7.1%1 1-04.6%1-19.4%1-29.6%1-36.5%1-4+5.3%2 2-01.7%2-13.5%2-23.6%2-32.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.6% 26.0% 3.85 -28.6%

Draw 22.2% 24.4% 4.10 -5.4%

Away win 64.2% 59.5% 1.68 +7.9%

Over 2.5 53.7% 65.4% 1.53 -17.8%

Over 3.5 31.8% 42.6% 2.35 -25.3%

BTTS 51.5% 65.4% 1.53 -21.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 38.5% 2.60 -21.5%

Away O1.5 53.8% 64.5% 1.55 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob51.5%

A 64% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.8%

#2 0–1 12.6%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–3 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George Willawong0.7

SC Wanderers2.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE WILLAWONG · PPG 0.60

SC WANDERERS · PPG 1.70

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.29 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

St George Willawong (H) 13.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -28.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.4%

SC Wanderers (A) 64.2%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George Willawong face SC Wanderers in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George Willawong a 14% chance, the draw 22% and SC Wanderers 64%, so SC Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for St George Willawong and 2.0 for SC Wanderers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George Willawong are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.70 for SC Wanderers.

St George Willawong vs SC Wanderers Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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