Leagues / AUSTRALIA / NPL Victoria
NPL Victoria
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 115 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
54.8%
1X2
63/115
53.9%
O/U 2.5
62/115
47.0%
BTTS
54/115
40.9%
Exact score
47/115
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
20
Settled
65.0%
Hit rate
13/20
1.74
Avg odds
+8.2%
ROI
+1.6u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.64 · +17.1% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.66 · +25.3% ROI
BTTS · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 2.08 · -58.8% ROI
HOME WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.66 · +16.3% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.64 · +64.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
5
Bets
60%
Hit
+8.4%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
100%
Hit
+55.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-15.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
8
Bets
63%
Hit
+2.1%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 9 HIT · 6 MISS
29 AUG Preston Lions vs Altona Magic Home -17% 1–1 MISS29 AUG Oakleigh Cannons vs Dandenong City Over 2.5 -13% 2–3 HIT29 AUG Avondale vs Hume City Over 2.5 +4% 2–0 MISS29 AUG Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens Over 2.5 -4% 2–0 MISS29 AUG Melbourne City II vs Green Gully Over 2.5 -10% 1–2 HIT29 AUG Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne BTTS -16% 1–0 MISS29 AUG St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder Over 2.5 -19% 6–0 HIT23 AUG South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United BTTS -2% 1–2 HIT22 AUG Melbourne City II vs Bentleigh Greens HO1.5 2–6 HIT22 AUG Altona Magic vs Avondale AO1.5 0–2 HIT22 AUG Hume City vs Sunshine Georgies BTTS -0% 3–2 HIT22 AUG Dandenong City vs Preston Lions BTTS -19% 0–0 MISS22 AUG Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons Away -22% 0–5 HIT21 AUG Green Gully vs St. Albans Saints BTTS -21% 1–2 HIT19 AUG Preston Lions vs Melbourne City II BTTS -2% 4–0 MISS