Leagues / AUSTRALIA / New South Wales NPL
New South Wales NPL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 111 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
48.6%
1X2
54/111
50.5%
O/U 2.5
56/111
50.5%
BTTS
56/111
39.6%
Exact score
44/111
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
91
Settled
54.9%
Hit rate
50/91
1.58
Avg odds
-14.0%
ROI
-12.8u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=38 52.6% HIT · AVG 1.55 · -18.3% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=31 61.3% HIT · AVG 1.55 · -4.4% ROI
HOME WIN · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.60 · -3.5% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.80 · -8.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=5 20.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · -71.2% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
10
Bets
40%
Hit
-34.3%
ROI
✓ Solid
11
Bets
91%
Hit
+37.6%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
16
Bets
69%
Hit
+10.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
54
Bets
46%
Hit
-28.1%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 14 PICKS · 11 HIT · 3 MISS
19 JUL Blacktown City vs St George City Over 2.5 +3% 3–0 HIT19 JUL Marconi S. vs Sydney Utd Home +10% 0–1 MISS18 JUL WS Wanderers B vs APIA Leichhardt Over 2.5 -7% 3–5 HIT18 JUL UNSW vs NWS Spirit BTTS -16% 3–1 HIT18 JUL Sutherland S. vs Sydney Olympic Over 2.5 +5% 1–1 MISS18 JUL Wollongong W. vs SD Raiders BTTS -17% 2–3 HIT18 JUL S George Saints vs Rockdale BTTS -13% 1–6 HIT17 JUL Sydney FC B vs Manly Utd BTTS -11% 0–0 MISS12 JUL Sydney Utd vs Rockdale — NO PICK 1–0 —12 JUL Marconi S. vs WS Wanderers B Over 2.5 -4% 3–0 HIT11 JUL SD Raiders vs Blacktown City Over 2.5 +4% 1–3 HIT11 JUL Sydney Olympic vs Wollongong W. BTTS -14% 3–2 HIT11 JUL Manly Utd vs Sutherland S. BTTS -15% 2–1 HIT11 JUL NWS Spirit vs S George Saints Home -14% 3–1 HIT11 JUL APIA Leichhardt vs Sydney FC B Over 2.5 -1% 2–1 HIT