Leagues / AUSTRALIA / Capital Territory NPL
Capital Territory NPL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 29 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
75.9%
1X2
22/29
65.5%
O/U 2.5
19/29
51.7%
BTTS
15/29
31.0%
Exact score
9/29
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
29
Settled
69.0%
Hit rate
20/29
1.30
Avg odds
-10.1%
ROI
-2.9u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=11 54.5% HIT · AVG 1.30 · -28.4% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=10 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.31 · +6.4% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=5 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.20 · -33.4% ROI
OVER 3.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +60.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.04 · +4.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+43.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
9
Bets
67%
Hit
-19.8%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-22.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
16
Bets
69%
Hit
-9.8%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 6 PICKS · 3 HIT · 3 MISS
11 JUL Tuggeranong Utd vs Belconnen Utd HO1.5 1–0 MISS11 JUL Gungahlin Juven vs OConnor Knight Over 2.5 -18% 2–0 MISS11 JUL Tigers FC vs Queanbeyan City Over 2.5 -10% 2–2 HIT4 JUL Canberra White vs Tigers FC AO1.5 0–2 HIT4 JUL Belconnen Utd vs Gungahlin Juven AO1.5 0–1 MISS4 JUL Monaro Panthers vs Brindabella Blu Home -15% 9–0 HITJune 2026 // 9 PICKS · 6 HIT · 3 MISS
28 JUN Gungahlin Juven vs Brindabella Blu HO1.5 2–0 HIT27 JUN OConnor Knight vs C. Olympic Over 2.5 -6% 1–0 MISS27 JUN Queanbeyan City vs Canberra White HO1.5 2–1 HIT27 JUN Monaro Panthers vs Tigers FC Over 2.5 +1% 2–0 MISS20 JUN C. Olympic vs Monaro Panthers AO1.5 2–5 HIT20 JUN Brindabella Blu vs OConnor Knight Over 2.5 -15% 1–0 MISS20 JUN Belconnen Utd vs Queanbeyan City AO1.5 1–2 HIT13 JUN OConnor Knight vs Tuggeranong Utd AO1.5 2–3 HIT13 JUN Queanbeyan City vs Monaro Panthers Over 2.5 -3% 2–5 HIT