Today / Australia - NPL Capital Territory / Brindabella vs Tuggeranong United

Brindabella vs Tuggeranong United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 08:30

Brindabella

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tuggeranong United

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 78.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.5%0-25.7%0-36.2%0-4+11.7%1 1-01.3%1-14.4%1-27.2%1-37.9%1-4+14.8%2 2-00.8%2-12.8%2-24.6%2-35.0%2-4+9.4%3 3-00.4%3-11.2%3-21.9%3-32.1%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 20.0% 5.00 +5.1%

Draw 15.0% 20.0% 5.00 -15.0%

Away win 63.2% 72.5% 1.38 -12.8%

Over 2.5 71.6% 76.9% 1.30 -6.9%

Over 3.5 52.2% 54.6% 1.83 -4.5%

BTTS 63.3% 69.0% 1.45 -8.2%

Home O1.5 37.9% 36.8% 2.72 +3.1%

Away O1.5 78.6% 78.1% 1.28 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob63.3%

A 63% / xG 1.3-3.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.9%

#2 1–2 7.2%

#3 1–4 6.5%

#4 0–3 6.2%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brindabella1.3

Tuggeranong United3.3

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BRINDABELLA · PPG 0.75

TUGGERANONG UNITED · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.02 for Away, form 0.75 vs 1.67

Win probability 1X2

Brindabella (H) 21.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.1%

Draw 15.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -15.0%

Tuggeranong United (A) 63.2%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brindabella face Tuggeranong United in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brindabella a 22% chance, the draw 15% and Tuggeranong United 63%, so Tuggeranong United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Brindabella and 3.3 for Tuggeranong United (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brindabella are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.67 for Tuggeranong United. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +3.1%.

Brindabella vs Tuggeranong United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Capital Territory Predictions