Today / Australia - NPL Capital Territory / Tuggeranong United vs Canberra Juventus

Tuggeranong United vs Canberra Juventus Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 05:00

Tuggeranong United

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Canberra Juventus

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.5%0-22.3%0-31.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.2%1-16.0%1-25.7%1-33.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.9%2-17.4%2-27.0%2-34.4%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.2%3-16.0%3-25.7%3-33.6%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-16.6%4+-26.2%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 51.3% 1.95 +0.2%

Draw 20.3% 26.3% 3.80 -13.7%

Away win 28.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.3%

Over 2.5 71.8% 78.1% 1.28 -8.1%

Over 3.5 51.6% 68.0% 1.47 -24.1%

BTTS 69.1% 84.7% 1.18 -18.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 74.1% 1.35 -12.1%

Away O1.5 55.2% 62.5% 1.60 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.1%

H 51% / xG 2.4-1.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.4%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 3–1 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuggeranong United2.4

Canberra Juventus1.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TUGGERANONG UNITED · PPG 2.33

CANBERRA JUVENTUS · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tuggeranong United (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.2%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.7%

Canberra Juventus (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuggeranong United face Canberra Juventus in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuggeranong United a 51% chance, the draw 20% and Canberra Juventus 28%, so Tuggeranong United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Tuggeranong United and 1.9 for Canberra Juventus (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuggeranong United are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Canberra Juventus. This match finished 2-0.

Tuggeranong United vs Canberra Juventus Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Capital Territory Predictions