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Belconnen United vs Canberra Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 04:30

Belconnen United

PPG 0.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Canberra Olympic

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.5%0-23.8%0-32.7%0-4+2.3%1 1-03.3%1-16.9%1-27.4%1-35.3%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.1%3-14.5%3-24.8%3-33.4%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.5%4+-23.7%4+-32.6%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 36.4% 2.75 +0.9%

Draw 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Away win 41.0% 50.0% 2.00 -18.0%

Over 2.5 67.3% 75.2% 1.33 -10.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 57.5% 1.74 -25.2%

BTTS 63.3% 78.7% 1.27 -19.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Away O1.5 56.5% 66.7% 1.50 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.3%

A 41% / xG 2.0-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.9%

#2 1–2 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belconnen United2.0

Canberra Olympic2.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BELCONNEN UNITED · PPG 0.44

CANBERRA OLYMPIC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Belconnen United (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +0.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

Canberra Olympic (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belconnen United face Canberra Olympic in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belconnen United a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Canberra Olympic 41%, so Canberra Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Belconnen United and 2.1 for Canberra Olympic (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belconnen United are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Canberra Olympic.

Belconnen United vs Canberra Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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